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text:

"Silver’s latest probability of winning table based on the latest US polling:"

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  "How would a shift in the polls change the race?
  How each candidate's chance of winning the 2024 presidential election would change if the polls shifted toward Harris or Trump, adjusting for the elasticity of each state
  Scenario
  Harris +5 from current polls
  Harris +4 from current polls
  Harris +3 from current polls
  Harris +2 from current polls
  Harris +1 from current polls
  Current forecast
  Trump +1 from current polls
  Trump +2 from current polls
  Trump +3 from current polls
  Trump +4 from current polls
  Trump +5 from current polls
  Harris win probability
  84.7%
  79.4%
  73.4%
  66.5%
  59.0%
  51.1%
  43.4%
  36.0%
  28.7%
  22.4%
  17.1%
  Trump win probability
  15.2%
  20.4%
  26.4%
  33.3%
  40.8%
  48.6%
  56.4%
  63.8%
  71.1%
  77.4%
  82.7%
  Note: Fundamental factors like the economy still influence these hypothetical forecasts based on different polling scenarios, just like they influence our main forecast.
  Updated September 20, 2024 • Get the data
  SILVER
  BULLETIN"

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langs:

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createdAt:

"2024-09-20T13:45:20.933Z"